Kenneth Deffeyes, a Princeton University geology professor, says it might be too late to plan. Deffeyes worked previously in Shell Oil’s research laboratory alongside M. King Hubbert, who gained fame when he accurately predicted in 1956 that oil production in the continental United States would peak between 1965 and 1970.

Using a similar formula, Deffeyes predicts that the global peak will occur by next Thanksgiving. But like a number of scientists making similarly dire forecasts, he has had to push back his date a couple of times.

“I’m not the least bit embarrassed,” he said in a telephone interview. “There’s a year-to-year jitter - a strike in Venezuela or a warmer-than-average winter in the Northeast. But any year between 2003 and 2007 may end up in the Guinness Book of World Records.”

If Deffeyes is right, [senior Energy Information Adminstration petroleum geologist David] Morehouse said, “our goose is cooked.”

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