On the other hand, if we’re more concerned about improving humanity’s prospects in 2010 or 2037 than Wall Street’s prospects at the close of trading tomorrow, then one prediction [of the date that oil production peaks] is probably as good as another. In designing an energy policy that can be sustained far into the post-petroleum future, the precise timing of the peak is of about as much practical importance as the date of the next total eclipse of the sun (on that forecast, astronomers agree: March 29, 2006).
A recent report prepared for the U.S. government by Science Applications International Corporation suggests that whatever the peak year turns out to be, 2005 is the time to get moving on energy policy. The report’s lead author, Robert L. Hirsch, concluded that strong action must be taken at least 10, and preferably 20 years before we reach a world oil peak, if we are to avoid “a long period of significant economic hardship worldwide.”
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