The most startling part of his [Matthew Simmons’] reported statements is that Saudi Arabia may well have peaked in production in 1981. Coupled with Peak Oil geology expert Colin Campbell’s new estimate that production could peak as soon as next year and the International Energy Agency moving its estimates forward from 2037 to 2013, both mentioned in the same report, Simmon’s statement takes the issue to a whole new level internationally.
Link (to NZ Green Party press release)
Dr Jeremy Leggett, a member of the UK government’s Renewables Advisory Board, predicted: “Most of us who are worried about this issue would say definitely it will happen some time this decade. 2008 might be the best guess, plus or minus two years. It’s certainly a lot earlier than almost all the world is assuming at the moment….
“Modern life depends on growing supplies of cheap oil and the world economy is predicated on the assumption that that is going to continue for another couple of decades and it is not. There is going to be a profound economic shock and we will not be able to bring in renewable energy in time to repair the damage.”
Simmons proposed a system of third-party auditing that “would allow serious energy analysts to finally calculate well productivity and decline rates … along with field-by-field reserve data”.
“This system would shed valuable light on how close the world is to ‘peak oil’ and whether this issue is still years away,” he said…
When pressed by Aljazeera.net on whether countries such as Saudi Arabia, the subject of his forthcoming book Twilight in the Desert, would really open their fields up to outside audits, Simmons replied: “I think they will be forced to, yes, I think that will happen.”
Despite this outlook the investment banker was also keen to stress that he was “an optimist” on the future of energy.
Mr Simmons told the meeting that it was inevitable that the price of oil would soar above $100 as supplies failed to meet demand. “Demand is pulling away from supply…and we have to ask whether we have the resources that we think we do. It could be catastrophic if we do not anticipate when peak oil comes.”
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“Oil will not run out for many years,” said Colin Campbell, former vice-president of Fina and chief geologist of the oil giant Amoco. “The information governments give is grossly unreliable. Oil companies report less than they discover for pragmatic reasons, but Opec countries have overestimated what they think their reserves are… The real issue is not the actual date of peak production - which I believe is next year - but what happens during the decline of production.”
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