Flavor 8

I just love these guys’ arguments. “Something’s always come along in time…” OK. What?

And as for the view that peak oil believers are cranks; the reason for this is that so far there has not been a single case of any commodity going through a complete Hubbert cycle in the sense that we don’t switch to something else. There have been peaks in the production of a great many commodities many of which are finite in the same sense that crude oil is finite. Yet the end of the world has not occured. One reason is that as the price goes up for whatever good is being used up, the price of previously uneconomical substitutes becomes relatively cheaper. Also, looking for subsitutes becomes relatively cheaper as well. For example, whale oil in the mid 1800’s had a price (in current dollars) that makes oil look like an unbelievable bargain. Then the kerosene lamp was invented and the impact on the whaling industry was almost immediate. By 1860 at least 30 kerosene plants were in production in the U.S. and whale oil was eventually driven off the market.

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