In theory, there are few things less terrifying than an Oregon Department of Transportation report detailing a pilot program to tax motorists by mileage driven.
But tucked into the 55-page report on the possibility of trading taxes by the gallon for taxes by the mile (see “Back-Seat Big Brother,” May 25, 2005) is one passage that-if you like highway travel and the American Way of Life-is more than a little frightening.
“Some petroleum industry experts predict that before 2010 the world production of conventional oil will crest and enter a permanent decline,” the report states under the heading “Peak Oil.”…
What the report doesn’t address is the theory’s bleaker side: Competition for dwindling oil reserves could lead to nuclear war, economic catastrophe or-if you’re a real pessimist-the end of civilization. By then, potholes might be the last thing on people’s minds.
From the report:
Some petroleum industry experts predict that before 2010 the world production of conventional oil will crest and enter a permanent decline while others estimate the midpoint will be reached as late as 2030 if oil consumption growth levels increase at a 2 percent rate. Furthermore, the recent and projected increases in global demand for oil products–owing to growing economies in China, India and other emerging national economies–may well cause the peak to arrive earlier than anticipated. Whichever estimate of the “peak” is correct, it is now clear that oil supplies will become constricted in the not too distant future. After the peak, gasoline prices would increase significantly while alternatively powered vehicles and fuel efficiency measures are developed and employed at a greater rate of acceptance.
Link (see section 2.4.3)