A new report entitled “Peaking of World Oil Production” by Robert L. Hirsch makes sobering reading. Hirsch is not some think-tank intellectual: He is a former VP of Arco and RAND senior energy analyst.
Hirsch makes note of our 210 million gas-guzzling cars and trucks, and the nine to 15 years it normally takes to replace half of them. “While significant improvements in fuel efficiency are possible in automobiles and light trucks,” he writes, “any affordable approach to upgrading will be inherently time-consuming, requiring more than a decade to achieve significant overall fuel efficiency improvement.” Uh oh.
But then there’s this: “The problems associated with world oil production peaking will not be temporary, and past ‘energy crisis’ experience will provide relatively little guidance. The challenge of oil peaking deserves immediate, serious attention if risks are to be fully understood and mitigation begun on a timely basis.” Hirsch concludes that the only way to avoid a serious shortfall of motor fuels is to begin planning to replace oil 20 years before the peak period is reached. But as we’ve already seen, the critical peak year may be much closer than that already.
Related Leave a Comment
No comments yet.