“We’ve never run out of oil; therefore we never will.” Duh.
In the first paragraph of his 2005 book, “Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert’s Peak,” Kenneth Deffeyes, professor emeritus at Princeton, boldly predicts that world production of crude oil will peak in just a few days, on Thanksgiving Day 2005. What happens when crude oil production statistics show increases well into 2006? Will Kenneth Deffeyes eat crow for Thanksgiving Day 2006 if he is wrong? Probably not.
Most likely Deffeyes will simply readjust his theory and pick a new day for “peak-oil production,” either that or he will assert he only meant the prediction metaphorically, not empirically. At any rate, Craig Smith and I are inclined to agree with Julian Simon. When will we run out of oil? “Never!” we too argue. The world has never had proven oil reserves as large as we have today and the trend shows no sign of reversing.
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