The article is an interesting read; the author reviews the major energy alternatives, and points out investment opportunities. I do have a couple of quibbles, though: he places a great deal of optimism on oil sands and shale, which from my reading seems to be undeserved (search this blog for more on the subject); also, he entirely neglects nuclear, which I think will see a dramatic resurgence.
As Deffeyes points out, we won’t know that we’ve hit the peak until after it is in the rearview mirror. After all, there is no way to prove that oil production will not be greater in some future year. A lot of respectable petroleum geologists say we are at peak oil; others, such as the folks at Cambridge Energy Research Associates, think not.
The experts do agree that the world’s oil supply faces significant challenges. The largest oil fields in the North Sea and North America are in permanent production decline, and demand is rising. If oil production from somewhere else does not increase rapidly, demand will outstrip supply in the very near future. Where is that new oil going to come from? Saudi Arabia is the only OPEC member that claims to have excess capacity, but the Saudi government won’t allow outsiders to independently audit the fields there.
Even if we are not sitting atop the peak, I see the supply-and-demand balance to be so tight that energy companies should lead the market for many more years. However, keep your head on your shoulders, and don’t bet on everyone driving hydrogen-powered automobiles. In 20 years, the cars we drive and the fuels we fill them with will most likely be very similar to the ones we use today.
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