The first thing to remember about studies like this is that an administration never asks for them unless it knows in advance what the study is going to conclude— less its release do more harm than good. The notion expressed by the DOE press spokesman that the Secretary is seeking “definitive information” about the future availability of cheap oil is absurd. What the Secretary is seeking is definitive backing for either the current policy or a rationale for a change.
The Secretary of Energy is clearly asking the leaders of the oil industry the key question: Is imminent peak oil for real? Can you oilmen continue to provide the American people all the cheap oil they need and want for many years or not?
The underlying issue is whether this request signals that the administration might be considering policy change in the not too distant future.
If the report comes back saying that “yes, oil supplies are getting a bit tight, but if the Congress will let us drill and build what we want where we want then all will be fine for awhile,” then this request is nothing more than the administration seeking more allies in the fight over drilling in Alaska.
If, on the other hand, the report honestly admits the era of cheap oil is nearly over, then we have a new ball game and a new national debate. The mere mention of the words “peak oil” in the request for a report is a tantalizing hint that change may be in offing.
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