“We see no evidence to suggest a peak before 2020, nor do we see a transparent and technically sound analysis from another source that justifies belief in an imminent peak,” CERA Senior Consultant and Director of Global Oil and Gas Resources Robert Esser testified before a House Energy and Air Quality Subcommittee hearing on Understanding the Peak Oil Theory. “It will be a number of decades into this century before we get to an inflexion point that will herald the arrival of an ‘undulating plateau’ of global hydrocarbon production capacity,” Esser said.
CERA projects that world oil production capacity – including crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), oil sands, gas-to-liquids (GTL), and other sources – has the potential to rise from 87 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2005 to as much as 108 mbd by 2015, with further growth in capacity continuing after that point.
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