In February 2005, Robert Hirsch, a senior energy program Advisor at Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), and colleagues submitted a report to the U.S. Department of Energy that examined the likely consequences of the impending global oil peak.
The researchers used the peaks of individual oil-producing nations and regions around the world to predict what will happen on a global scale.
In all of the historical cases they examined, it was not obvious that peaking was going to occur until about a year before the event.
Also, the peaks were followed by sharp declines in oil production — it did not gently slope or flatten out as some forecasters have predicted global production will.
The authors also stressed that steps must be taken to identify and deploy alternatives fuels at least 10 years before peaking occurs. Even then, there will be some dire economic consequences.
If steps are taken 20 years before peaking, there may be a chance that serious economic harm will be averted, the researchers concluded.
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