Last week the US Government released the International Energy Outlook 2006 (IEO). As it has been doing annually since 1985, the Energy Information Administration uses this document to expound its view of world energy supply and demand for the next 25 years.
Unfortunately, however, from a peak-oil-is-imminent perspective, one is forced to say that many of this report’s projections are so far from reality that the EIA must be talking about some other world. Early on the report makes it clear the government is not buying into imminent “peak oil.”
… The authors assume that “for the period out to 2030, there is sufficient oil to meet worldwide demand.” “Peaking of world oil production is not anticipated until after 2030.” They also assume there will be no long-lasting disruptions to the steady growth of oil and other forms of energy production for the next 25 years. The report says flat out, “A business-as-usual oil market environment was assumed. Disruptions in oil supply for any reason (war, terror, weather, geopolitics) were not assumed.”
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