This is interesting / scary.
On November 29, the Washington Post carried an op-ed by Nawaf Obaid, an advisor to the Saudi government…
“Stepping Into Iraq” starts by reminding President Bush that in February 2003 the Saudi Foreign Minister had warned him that if the US removed Saddam Hussein by force he would only be solving one problem by creating five more.
Obaid goes on to point out that had the President followed the Foreign Minister’s advice, Iraq would not now be facing “full blown civil war and disintegration.”
The thrust of the message, however, is a thinly veiled warning to the US not to walk away from Iraq. Obaid quotes the Saudi Ambassador who said last month: “Since America came into Iraq uninvited, it should not leave Iraq uninvited.” And Obaid adds, “If it does, one of the first consequences will be massive Saudi intervention to stop Iranian-backed Shiite militias from butchering Iraqi Sunnis.”
…The critical part of all this is just what the Saudis are going to do in the face of an American threat to withdraw. The op-ed lists three options. First Riyadh could give their Sunni kinsmen (money, arms and logistical support…
The second Saudi option would be to fund, equip, and train new “Sunni brigades” to offset the Shiite militias. This of course would formalize the “civil war.”
Now, however, we get to the Saudis’ third option as suggested by Obaid— oil. “King Abdullah may decide to strangle Iranian funding of the militias through oil policy.” “If the Saudis boosted production and cut the price of oil in half, the kingdom could still finance its current spending. But it would be devastating to Iran, which is facing economic difficulties even with today’s high prices.”
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