Assumptions:

1. If terrorists were actively seeking to cause damage in the US, they could; we’d be constantly hearing about it. They’d either use cells already in the country, or come in via some remote part of the border. They’d blow up a gas station here, drop nails on the freeway there, poison a reservoir somewhere else. Not hard to imagine, and it would effectively up the fear levels of the population.
2. Bin Laden is acting rationally to meet predesigned aims, and is not insane.
3. Osama Bin Laden’s stated goal is to get the US out of Saudi Arabia. His unstated goals are speculated to include toppling the House of Saud, whose rule the US’s presence in the Arabian peninsula, though diminished since 2003’s withdrawal, still helps to prop up.
4. Bin Laden was aware that the neocons, who came into power with Bush at the beginning of 2001, and in particular the PNAC contingent, who so happened to be Bush’s closest advisors, had a major hard-on for Saddam Hussein’s head. PNAC documents had even stated in 1998 that they needed a “new Pearl Harbor” to achieve their geopolitical aims. If Bin Laden was paying attention, he’d have been aware of this reference, and would have been able to predict that the US’ response to the attacks of 9/11 would eventually lead to Iraq.
5. We’re out on a limb at this point, but it’s a useful thought experiment. This leads to the implication that Bin Laden wanted the US to attack Iraq. Perhaps his goal was simple PR; having the US destroy Iraq would bring more recruits to his cause. However, and this is more of a stretch, perhaps he could have predicted the quagmire that the US now finds itself in. After all, the Iraqi people were united only by oppression from Hussein; with the head of the state excised, the resulting chaos was surely predictable. Bush Sr certainly was aware of the issue when he turned around the tanks at the end of GW1.
6. Assuming that he could have analytically predicted the general course of events that have taken place so far (with the exception, perhaps, of the US’ destruction of the Taliban in Afghanistan,) it follows that the US being embroiled in the quagmire is in line with his aims. So, what could these be? Again, general anti-US PR could be the straightforward answer. Weakening the US, in general, perhaps?
7. As a litmus test for this theory, we can make a prediction: there won’t be an OBL designed terrorist attack on US soil as long as the US stays in Iraq. When/if the US does begin to withdraw, we might expect another attack, designed to reignite the general tolerance for military action by the US public.
   

All speculation of course; feel free to tear holes in it.

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